I was digging in my branch mine and i found a little vein of iron. I mined it out and it made a hole into this epic vein. I dug a few out but i noticed there was a bunch of this diamond so i dug around, digging as little diamond as could to get these pictures xD
So i was just walking around and...
So i was just spawning around and...
Haha! dude! when I read that post you posted 42 times in total, so your rank read "The Meaning of Life, The Universe, and Everything"! It makes your image even more win! :biggrin.gif:
This damn thread again? I like the fact that people encourage the search button, but if you're going to bring something like this back add to it at least. The odds that one user calculated at least served a purpose.
/noncontributing rant
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Brilliant Troll. This guy is a mad genius
Quote from Silvermatt »
omg guiz dis is amazing it so sexi i wanna penetrate the shep so hard look at it yilow cilir
notch why u do diz yo so mean i mean look at it it so sad T~T
EDITING OP WITH PICTURES FROM THREAD:
The largest possible diamond vein is 32.
They can get unimaginably huge when two or more veins are right next to each other. (So close that they combine into huge veins.)
The largest single vein is 8.
The largest combination is four of the largest veins since there's only one diamond vein per chunk.
And the likeliness of that happening is this:
Diamond veins can have any amount between 1 and 8, so 1/8 to get 8. Four together is 1/4096. Each chunk that diamond can be found in is 6x16x16 which is 1536, 8/1536 as there's 8 ores, which simplifies down to 1/67, four together = 1/219961
That x 1/4096 = 1/900960256.
So there's a 1/900960256 chance that this thread isn't fake. Well, ****.
"Assume 900,000 players about right now"
the odds of a single deposite,
1/900960256
the odds of a person finding diamond:
1 deposite per eight minutes (maximized)
1 deposite per world (record low achivement)
Lets assume that people, on average, find a deposite once every hour.
how long do people play though?
maybe 10 hours per person? I would say at least this.
are we looking for a hardcore diamond miner? most probably.
ten hours, ten deposites, 900,000 people, at 1/900960256
Makes it about 1/10 chance that someone found this deposite.
ten hours, ten deposites, 900,000 people, at 1/900960256
Makes it about 1/10 chance that someone found this deposite.
is it that unlikely now?
Not quite, it's a 1/100 chance. Specifically, with the exact values you quoted, it's
1-(1-1/900960256)^(10*900000)
(the complement of the chance of nobody finding such a vein is somebody finding it) which is, to 3 decimal places, 0.001.
Keep in mind that the assumptions are pretty wild; of everyone playing Minecraft, very few spend ten hours a day looking for diamonds (maybe 500 or fewer). Of those, not everyone would post on the forums about their huge find (as opposed to say, making 32 jukeboxes for the hell of it, which I assume everybody would do). In your favour however is the fact that people would have played for longer than 1 day. Also in your favour is that it isn't necessary to have 32 diamonds found to have an "epic find" (though I can't be bothered to calculate the odds of finding 28 or more diamonds, because that's annoying combinatorial stuff that my calculator doesn't do). If we assume that 1,000 hardcore diamond miners have been working 8 hours a day for 1 and a half years (which is slightly longer than the game has been in development), the number of "trials" is 4,383,000, which is around half as many trials and gives us odds of .5% that somebody would have found such a vein of diamonds.
Though I think you'll agree that the total amount of diamond veins ever found is considerably less than 4 billlion - the total number of diamonds found is probably barely a few hundred thousand, if that. In short, it is incredibly unlikely that we live in a universe in which somebody struck the most epic of diamond veins. Proof that there is no god? I think so.
Uh, guys, it's actually possible for long odds to come true.
I remember an amazing story several years ago of a woman winning two jackpots on two slot machines, right after each other.
The odds of that happening were greater than the number of grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one. Yet it happened.
If something can happen with a rarity that high, literally a Quadrillion to one would have a 10,000 times greater chance of happening, then why is something with a measly 900 million to one odds not possible?
Also, people win the lottery all the time. Are you saying they hacked or something? :smile.gif:
I think people here need to read about the Gambler's Folly, and other odds related info, before they can claim HAX, or Hacks, or whatever the internet term for it is now.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I have Asperger's Syndrome, a mental disorder of the Autistic Spectrum, apologies in advance if my posts seem a bit off.
Uh, guys, it's actually possible for long odds to come true.
I remember an amazing story several years ago of a woman winning two jackpots on two slot machines, right after each other.
The odds of that happening were greater than the number of grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one. Yet it happened.
If something can happen with a rarity that high, literally a Quadrillion to one would have a 10,000 times greater chance of happening, then why is something with a measly 900 million to one odds not possible?
Also, people win the lottery all the time. Are you saying they hacked or something? :smile.gif:
I think people here need to read about the Gambler's Folly, and other odds related info, before they can claim HAX, or Hacks, or whatever the internet term for it is now.
I call ******** on your "literally a quadrillion to one" statistic. That would mean the odds of getting a single jackpot would be 31,622,776 to one against (unless you meant two jackpots per slot machine for two slot machines, or "four jackpots", which is the more common way of saying such a thing). Nobody would play such a ridiculously stacked slot machine. Do you have a source for the statistic, or did you just make **** up and add the qualifier "literally" despite you not meaning "literally" at all? Links or GTFO.
Oh, and do keep in mind that we have many, many more people playing slot machines than we do mining for diamonds in Minecraft. Compare what is probably a trillion dollar world-wide industry where games can cost anywhere from a few cents to a few dollars (and the companies involved only get between about 75%-95% of the money played back) to a game owned by under 800,000 people, most of whom have never even mined diamond. The difference in the number of "trials" is staggering.
Uh, guys, it's actually possible for long odds to come true.
I remember an amazing story several years ago of a woman winning two jackpots on two slot machines, right after each other.
The odds of that happening were greater than the number of grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one. Yet it happened.
If something can happen with a rarity that high, literally a Quadrillion to one would have a 10,000 times greater chance of happening, then why is something with a measly 900 million to one odds not possible?
Also, people win the lottery all the time. Are you saying they hacked or something? :smile.gif:
I think people here need to read about the Gambler's Folly, and other odds related info, before they can claim HAX, or Hacks, or whatever the internet term for it is now.
I call ******** on your "literally a quadrillion to one" statistic. That would mean the odds of getting a single jackpot would be 31,622,776 to one against (unless you meant two jackpots per slot machine for two slot machines, or "four jackpots", which is the more common way of saying such a thing). Nobody would play such a ridiculously stacked slot machine. Do you have a source for the statistic, or did you just make **** up and add the qualifier "literally" despite you not meaning "literally" at all? Links or GTFO.
Oh, and do keep in mind that we have many, many more people playing slot machines than we do mining for diamonds in Minecraft. Compare what is probably a trillion dollar world-wide industry where games can cost anywhere from a few cents to a few dollars (and the companies involved only get between about 75%-95% of the money played back) to a game owned by under 800,000 people, most of whom have never even mined diamond. The difference in the number of "trials" is staggering.
Whoa, there, crank the Rage meter down a few billion notches. (no, not billions of Notchs!) Please, don't get mad at me. Okay. Whoa....
I may be off on the odds for the Slot machine, all I know is that a woman won either two jackpots in a row, or two jackpots on two different machines right next to each, one right after the other. If the odds of that are not greater than all the grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one, than I apologize. My memory is not unto a God's.
Also, most slot machines have a payout rate between 90% and 98%.
And yes, I know there are a lot of people who've never mined diamond in Minecraft, and there are a lot of players in the game, I'm just saying that even if the odds are as huge as 900 million to one, they can still happen.
A coin can land on it's side. It's just really rare. :smile.gif:
It's totally possible for him to have been the record breaker, the jackpot winner, for finding that diamond ore group.
Mrawesuume, Diamonds spawn at a max of 8 in a vein, and a vein per chunk, sometimes the chunks will intersect at the right moment.
I just get tired of all the Hacks called on every single thread just about. It's really annoying.
When did this forum become worse than 4chan' /b Board?
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
I have Asperger's Syndrome, a mental disorder of the Autistic Spectrum, apologies in advance if my posts seem a bit off.
http://www.learntoplayslotmachines.com/odds.htm mentions slot machines with 64 million:1 odds... that people do play. Keep in mind that those are not your odds for winning ANYTHING. Those are you odds for winning specifically the jackpot. Plenty of people play slots just to win a slight amount of money, never really expecting the jackpot necessarily.
Also, the claim that only several hundred thousand diamonds have ever been found is completely absurd.
I myself have found at least 400-500 diamonds in my time playing, and I barely even go mining that much. I spend most of my time building things with invedit. Plus, I've only known about the game for 3-4 months, which seems pretty typical, and I have a busy life as a grad student and don't actually play all that inhumanly much.
With hundreds of thousands of PAYING PLAYERS, the claim that only a few hundred thousand diamonds have been found assumes that only about 1 in 5 players has ever even found a single diamond vein... That is ridiculous. The number is probably much closer to 10-25 veins found per person (i.e., several orders of magnitude off of your estimate), or more. Most of the people who start dumb threads about finding their first diamond have accounts created only a couple days earlier than the thread.
This would make your odds estimate go from 0.5% to something more like the high double digits in % likelihood...
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Przerwap, upon looking at some code I had just written: "...Gav... That's not how programming works."
http://www.learntoplayslotmachines.com/odds.htm mentions slot machines with 64 million:1 odds... that people do play. Keep in mind that those are not your odds for winning ANYTHING. Those are you odds for winning specifically the jackpot. Plenty of people play slots just to win a slight amount of money, never really expecting the jackpot necessarily.
Well then, please find the article which says that this woman was playing on one of those slot machines. Otherwise it's still bs.
Quote from smurfsahoy »
Also, the claim that only several hundred thousand diamonds have ever been found is completely absurd.
I myself have found at least 400-500 diamonds in my time playing, and I barely even go mining that much. I spend most of my time building things with invedit. Plus, I've only known about the game for 3-4 months, which seems pretty typical, and I have a busy life as a grad student and don't actually play all that inhumanly much.
With hundreds of thousands of PAYING PLAYERS, the claim that only a few hundred thousand diamonds have been found assumes that only about 1 in 5 players has ever even found a single diamond vein... That is ridiculous. The number is probably much closer to 10-25 veins found per person (i.e., several orders of magnitude off of your estimate), or more. Most of the people who start dumb threads about finding their first diamond have accounts created only a couple days earlier than the thread.
Under 800,000 people own the game. Of those, how many do you think have 400-500 diamonds? Why don't you do a poll. I think you'll find that of the people on this forum (who are most likely more dedicated players, but we'll assume are representative), many bought the game in the past few months (as you did), some no longer play, some don't even spend their time mining but enjoy many of the other features of the game. And every single time a thread about diamonds pops up, it becomes full of people going "Lucky, i've only got like 2 diamonds" or "I've never found any diamonds". Some people use INVEdit or similar tools instead. In short, the fact that you've found ~125 veins of diamonds doesn't make it the average. In fact it makes you the exception. I've only found about 4 diamond veins in 2 months (because I don't go mining very often).
Quote from smurfsahoy »
This would make your odds estimate go from 0.5% to something more like the high double digits in % likelihood...
High double digits? No. With 17.5 veins found on average and 750,000 people playing (and I doubt that 17.5 is even close to the right value, but still) we get 14.5% odds. That's a 14.5% chance that anybody has ever made such a find. And that doesn't take into account the many complicating factors that would make a 32 diamond vein exceedingly unlikely (doesn't deal with the fact that the diamonds must all be located in a specific corner of the chunk, which, at the very least, multiplies the odds by one eighth - maths on request - and caverns or lava intersecting the vein and - though I don't know exactly how the deposition algorithm works, so this may not happen - the potential for diamonds to be "overwritten" by another ore).
Now I'm not saying this find isn't legitimate. I'm just saying that a 32 diamond vein is total bs.
I said that I personally have found 4-500 diamonds. I estimated the average to be 10-25 veins (e.g., 40-100 diamonds). You claim to have found 4 veins in 2 months. The main explosion of purchases of this game was around early September, so most players have been around for about 3+ months. At the same rate of mining as you, they would have found about 6 veins each.
800,000 players (+ 100,000 pirates at least) times 6 veins times 4 diamonds per vein = 21.6 million diamonds found in the game so far, based on your own reported rate of discovery.
Which is still almost two orders of magnitude bigger than your earlier claim.
(doesn't deal with the fact that the diamonds must all be located in a specific corner of the chunk, which, at the very least, multiplies the odds by one eighth
Huh? The fact of them all being in the right corners is pretty much the entire basis of the odds being so low in the first place. Simply having 4 neighboring chunks with 8 diamonds each SOMEWHERE probably happens once every few maps... that's not going to be rare at all, since every chunk has one vein in it, and 8 diamonds isn't that unlikely, and each chunk has 4 different possible sets of neighbors to accomplish this with.
Them all being in the corner is why the odds are in the millions to begin with, instead of 1:4000 or whatever.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Przerwap, upon looking at some code I had just written: "...Gav... That's not how programming works."
Actually, I went back and did the odds myself, and I end up with 1 in 100 trillion...
Chance that the first diamond vein is anywhere along any corner of its chunk = 4/225. (chance of one corner * 4 available corners)
Chance that that vein plus the other three near that corner have 8 diamond each = 1/4096.
Chance that each subsequent vein is in that same particular corner = 1/225
Chance that each subsequent vein is at one of the 5 heights in that corner that would allow it to touch the first vein = 5/17
Assuming 17.5 veins found on average for 900,000 players = 1/6,635,520 chance of this having happened legitimately so far in the game's history.
Still plausible. One must consider the fact that there are MANY things that would be equally interesting statistically. Let's say 100 different things in this game could happen that would be equally cool and unlikely. The chances of one of them happening so far is only 1/60,000.
Then I consider that I have played many games like this, and frequented many forums. Maybe 15 such forums in my life. The chance that one person would have found something equally interesting on one of those games is 1/4,000
Definitely plausible. But not AS plausible as cheating. Because there is not insignificant fame incentive of hacking in a cool looking screen shot for the forums. I think the odds that somebody would have succumbed to that temptation while simultaneously being smart enough to not overdo it are much shorter than the above odds.
So if I were a betting man, I'd guess it's haxx0red.
Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack
Przerwap, upon looking at some code I had just written: "...Gav... That's not how programming works."
So if I were a betting man, I'd guess it's haxx0red.
I'm sad to say that I was basically prepared to go off like a fire-cracker. Although I would argue that 1/6,635,520 is not plausible (given that it's roughly equivalent to the odds of a person rolling 7.5 sixes on their first ever attempt at rolling dice - and that it's roughly 330,000 times less likely than the burden of proof required for a standard statistical induction, 33,000 times the really strong ones). Nonetheless, I can feel relieved that me acting like a batshit-insane toddler was not a total waste of my internet decorum.
I suspect Oryxian has a nonfuctioning sense of Irony.
Thank you, smurfsahoy. Normally I'm on Gargamel's side, but you just put everything I need to really say into the post above.
Have a a shiny blue rock
Haha! dude! when I read that post you posted 42 times in total, so your rank read "The Meaning of Life, The Universe, and Everything"! It makes your image even more win! :biggrin.gif:
/noncontributing rant
"Assume 900,000 players about right now"
the odds of a single deposite,
1/900960256
the odds of a person finding diamond:
1 deposite per eight minutes (maximized)
1 deposite per world (record low achivement)
Lets assume that people, on average, find a deposite once every hour.
how long do people play though?
maybe 10 hours per person? I would say at least this.
are we looking for a hardcore diamond miner? most probably.
ten hours, ten deposites, 900,000 people, at 1/900960256
Makes it about 1/10 chance that someone found this deposite.
is it that unlikely now?
Not quite, it's a 1/100 chance. Specifically, with the exact values you quoted, it's (the complement of the chance of nobody finding such a vein is somebody finding it) which is, to 3 decimal places, 0.001.
Keep in mind that the assumptions are pretty wild; of everyone playing Minecraft, very few spend ten hours a day looking for diamonds (maybe 500 or fewer). Of those, not everyone would post on the forums about their huge find (as opposed to say, making 32 jukeboxes for the hell of it, which I assume everybody would do). In your favour however is the fact that people would have played for longer than 1 day. Also in your favour is that it isn't necessary to have 32 diamonds found to have an "epic find" (though I can't be bothered to calculate the odds of finding 28 or more diamonds, because that's annoying combinatorial stuff that my calculator doesn't do). If we assume that 1,000 hardcore diamond miners have been working 8 hours a day for 1 and a half years (which is slightly longer than the game has been in development), the number of "trials" is 4,383,000, which is around half as many trials and gives us odds of .5% that somebody would have found such a vein of diamonds.
Though I think you'll agree that the total amount of diamond veins ever found is considerably less than 4 billlion - the total number of diamonds found is probably barely a few hundred thousand, if that. In short, it is incredibly unlikely that we live in a universe in which somebody struck the most epic of diamond veins. Proof that there is no god? I think so.
I remember an amazing story several years ago of a woman winning two jackpots on two slot machines, right after each other.
The odds of that happening were greater than the number of grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one. Yet it happened.
If something can happen with a rarity that high, literally a Quadrillion to one would have a 10,000 times greater chance of happening, then why is something with a measly 900 million to one odds not possible?
Also, people win the lottery all the time. Are you saying they hacked or something? :smile.gif:
I think people here need to read about the Gambler's Folly, and other odds related info, before they can claim HAX, or Hacks, or whatever the internet term for it is now.
I call ******** on your "literally a quadrillion to one" statistic. That would mean the odds of getting a single jackpot would be 31,622,776 to one against (unless you meant two jackpots per slot machine for two slot machines, or "four jackpots", which is the more common way of saying such a thing). Nobody would play such a ridiculously stacked slot machine. Do you have a source for the statistic, or did you just make **** up and add the qualifier "literally" despite you not meaning "literally" at all? Links or GTFO.
Oh, and do keep in mind that we have many, many more people playing slot machines than we do mining for diamonds in Minecraft. Compare what is probably a trillion dollar world-wide industry where games can cost anywhere from a few cents to a few dollars (and the companies involved only get between about 75%-95% of the money played back) to a game owned by under 800,000 people, most of whom have never even mined diamond. The difference in the number of "trials" is staggering.
Never seen diamond ores veins over 8 per spot.
Inveditcall.
Whoa, there, crank the Rage meter down a few billion notches. (no, not billions of Notchs!) Please, don't get mad at me. Okay. Whoa....
I may be off on the odds for the Slot machine, all I know is that a woman won either two jackpots in a row, or two jackpots on two different machines right next to each, one right after the other. If the odds of that are not greater than all the grains of sand on all the world's beaches to one, than I apologize. My memory is not unto a God's.
Also, most slot machines have a payout rate between 90% and 98%.
And yes, I know there are a lot of people who've never mined diamond in Minecraft, and there are a lot of players in the game, I'm just saying that even if the odds are as huge as 900 million to one, they can still happen.
A coin can land on it's side. It's just really rare. :smile.gif:
It's totally possible for him to have been the record breaker, the jackpot winner, for finding that diamond ore group.
Mrawesuume, Diamonds spawn at a max of 8 in a vein, and a vein per chunk, sometimes the chunks will intersect at the right moment.
I just get tired of all the Hacks called on every single thread just about. It's really annoying.
When did this forum become worse than 4chan' /b Board?
Also, the claim that only several hundred thousand diamonds have ever been found is completely absurd.
I myself have found at least 400-500 diamonds in my time playing, and I barely even go mining that much. I spend most of my time building things with invedit. Plus, I've only known about the game for 3-4 months, which seems pretty typical, and I have a busy life as a grad student and don't actually play all that inhumanly much.
With hundreds of thousands of PAYING PLAYERS, the claim that only a few hundred thousand diamonds have been found assumes that only about 1 in 5 players has ever even found a single diamond vein... That is ridiculous. The number is probably much closer to 10-25 veins found per person (i.e., several orders of magnitude off of your estimate), or more. Most of the people who start dumb threads about finding their first diamond have accounts created only a couple days earlier than the thread.
This would make your odds estimate go from 0.5% to something more like the high double digits in % likelihood...
Just thought I'd mention it.
Well then, please find the article which says that this woman was playing on one of those slot machines. Otherwise it's still bs.
Under 800,000 people own the game. Of those, how many do you think have 400-500 diamonds? Why don't you do a poll. I think you'll find that of the people on this forum (who are most likely more dedicated players, but we'll assume are representative), many bought the game in the past few months (as you did), some no longer play, some don't even spend their time mining but enjoy many of the other features of the game. And every single time a thread about diamonds pops up, it becomes full of people going "Lucky, i've only got like 2 diamonds" or "I've never found any diamonds". Some people use INVEdit or similar tools instead. In short, the fact that you've found ~125 veins of diamonds doesn't make it the average. In fact it makes you the exception. I've only found about 4 diamond veins in 2 months (because I don't go mining very often).
High double digits? No. With 17.5 veins found on average and 750,000 people playing (and I doubt that 17.5 is even close to the right value, but still) we get 14.5% odds. That's a 14.5% chance that anybody has ever made such a find. And that doesn't take into account the many complicating factors that would make a 32 diamond vein exceedingly unlikely (doesn't deal with the fact that the diamonds must all be located in a specific corner of the chunk, which, at the very least, multiplies the odds by one eighth - maths on request - and caverns or lava intersecting the vein and - though I don't know exactly how the deposition algorithm works, so this may not happen - the potential for diamonds to be "overwritten" by another ore).
Now I'm not saying this find isn't legitimate. I'm just saying that a 32 diamond vein is total bs.
I said that I personally have found 4-500 diamonds. I estimated the average to be 10-25 veins (e.g., 40-100 diamonds). You claim to have found 4 veins in 2 months. The main explosion of purchases of this game was around early September, so most players have been around for about 3+ months. At the same rate of mining as you, they would have found about 6 veins each.
800,000 players (+ 100,000 pirates at least) times 6 veins times 4 diamonds per vein = 21.6 million diamonds found in the game so far, based on your own reported rate of discovery.
Which is still almost two orders of magnitude bigger than your earlier claim.
Huh? The fact of them all being in the right corners is pretty much the entire basis of the odds being so low in the first place. Simply having 4 neighboring chunks with 8 diamonds each SOMEWHERE probably happens once every few maps... that's not going to be rare at all, since every chunk has one vein in it, and 8 diamonds isn't that unlikely, and each chunk has 4 different possible sets of neighbors to accomplish this with.
Them all being in the corner is why the odds are in the millions to begin with, instead of 1:4000 or whatever.
Chance that the first diamond vein is anywhere along any corner of its chunk = 4/225. (chance of one corner * 4 available corners)
Chance that that vein plus the other three near that corner have 8 diamond each = 1/4096.
Chance that each subsequent vein is in that same particular corner = 1/225
Chance that each subsequent vein is at one of the 5 heights in that corner that would allow it to touch the first vein = 5/17
Overall odds = (1/4096) * (4/225) * (1/225)^3 * (5/17)^3
= (1/4096) * (1/56) * (1/11,390,625) * (1/40)
= 1/104,509,440,000,000
Assuming 17.5 veins found on average for 900,000 players = 1/6,635,520 chance of this having happened legitimately so far in the game's history.
Still plausible. One must consider the fact that there are MANY things that would be equally interesting statistically. Let's say 100 different things in this game could happen that would be equally cool and unlikely. The chances of one of them happening so far is only 1/60,000.
Then I consider that I have played many games like this, and frequented many forums. Maybe 15 such forums in my life. The chance that one person would have found something equally interesting on one of those games is 1/4,000
Definitely plausible. But not AS plausible as cheating. Because there is not insignificant fame incentive of hacking in a cool looking screen shot for the forums. I think the odds that somebody would have succumbed to that temptation while simultaneously being smart enough to not overdo it are much shorter than the above odds.
So if I were a betting man, I'd guess it's haxx0red.
I usually play Portal 2, TF2, L4D, Fallout 3 and Super Meat Boy in it!
Dude you're a loser for correcting people like that. But by all means please continue acting as snide and uppity as you want.
...you do realize on losers use the term "loser", right?
Oh wait
I usually play Portal 2, TF2, L4D, Fallout 3 and Super Meat Boy in it!
Care to enlighten?
I'm sad to say that I was basically prepared to go off like a fire-cracker. Although I would argue that 1/6,635,520 is not plausible (given that it's roughly equivalent to the odds of a person rolling 7.5 sixes on their first ever attempt at rolling dice - and that it's roughly 330,000 times less likely than the burden of proof required for a standard statistical induction, 33,000 times the really strong ones). Nonetheless, I can feel relieved that me acting like a batshit-insane toddler was not a total waste of my internet decorum.